TED英語演講：創業公司如何才能成功

　　創業公司如何才能成功

　　演講者：Bill Gross

　　I'm really excited to share with you some findings that really surprise me about what makes companies succeed the most，what factors actually matter the most for startup success。I believe that the startup organization is one of the greatest forms to make the world a better place。

　　非常高興，能夠與你們分享一些使我感到十分驚訝的發現。這些發現是關于什么最能使公司成功以及對于創業公司，什么因素最要緊。我相信，創業組織是使世界成為更好的地方的最偉大的形式之一。

　　If you take a group of people with the right equity incentives and organize them in a startup，you can unlock human potential in a way never before possible。 You get them to achieve unbelievable things。But if the startup organization is so great，why do so many fail？That's what I wanted to find out。

　　如果你能用合適的股權激勵來召集一幫人并且把他們組織起來創業的話你就能以前所未有的方式釋放了人類潛能。并引領他們去完成不可置信的事情。但是，如果創業組織那么偉大，為什么還會有很多失敗呢？這就是我想要探究的問題。

　　I wanted to find out what actually matters most for startup success。And I wanted to try to be systematic about it，avoid some of my instincts and maybe misperceptions I have fr—om so many companies I've seen over the years。I wanted to know this because I've been starting businesses since I was 12 years old when I sold candy at the bus stop in junior high school。

　　我想要了解，對創業公司的成功來說，到底什么最為重要。我也想要對此問題系統化的分析，避免一些因為我這些年看到許多公司而得來的直覺上的誤解。我想要知道這個，因為，我從12歲上初中，在汽車站售賣糖果時，便開始我自己的商業活動。

　　to high school，when I made solar energy devices，to college，when I made loudspeakers。 And when I graduated fr—om college，I started software companies。 And 20 years ago，I started Idealab，and in the last 20 years，we started more than 100 companies，many successes，and many big failures。 We learned a lot fr—om those failures。So I tried to look across what factors accounted the most for company success and failure。

　　在高中時，我做太陽能設備的生意，在大學時，我做擴音器生意。當我從大學畢業的時候，我成立了一家軟件公司。 20xx年前，我成立了創意實驗室，在過去的20xx年里，我們成立超過100家公司。其中，很多成功了，也有很多失敗了。我們從那些失敗中學到了很多。所以，我嘗試去探索是什么因素導致公司的成敗。

　　So I looked at these five。 First，the idea。 I used to think that the idea was everything。 I named my company Idealab for how much I worship the "aha！" moment when you first come up with the idea。 But then over time，I came to think that maybe the team，the execution，adaptability，that mattered even more than the idea。

　　所以我關注在這5點。第一，創意。我過去認為，創意就是全部。我將我的公司命名為創意實驗室，是因為，我十分推崇，當你首次想到某個想法的時候，“aha”（啊哈）開竅的時刻。但是，隨著時間的推移，我認為或許團隊、執行力或者是適應力，比創意更要緊。

　　I never thought I'd be quoting boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage，but he once said，"Everybody has a plan，until they get punched in the face。"（Laughter）And I think that's so true about business as well。 So much about a team's execution is its ability to adapt to getting punched in the face by the customer。 The customer is the true reality。 And that's why I came to think that the team maybe was the most important thing。

　　我從沒想過，我會在TED的舞臺上，引用拳王泰森的話，但是，他曾經說過，“每個人都有計劃，直到被人打臉為止。”（笑聲）我認為，對于生意也是這樣的。對于一個團隊的執行力為說，最要緊的，是它使自己能適應被客戶打臉的能力。客戶就是真理。這就是為什么我認為團隊是最重要的事情。

　　Then I started looking at the business model。 Does the company have a very clear path generating customer revenues？That started rising to the top in my thinking about maybe what mattered most for success。Then I looked at the funding。 Sometimes companies received intense amounts of funding。 Maybe that's the most important thing？

　　然后，我開始關注商業模式，就是這個公司是否有一條清晰的能產生客戶收益的路線圖嗎？商業模式開始成為我對什么對成功最重要這一思考的重點。然后，我關注了資金。有時候一些公司會去吸納大量的資金，也許這是最重要的事情？

　　And then of course，the timing。 Is the idea way too early and the world's not ready for it？Is it early，as in，you're in advance and you have to educate the world？Is it just right？Or is it too late，and there's already too many competitors？So I tried to look very carefully at these five factors across many companies。 And I looked across all 100 Idealab companies，and 100 non—Idealab companies to try and come up with something scientific about it。

　　當然還有時機，這個想法是不是太早了，我們還沒有做好迎接它的準備？它是不是太超前了以至于你不得不來教導世界？它恰在時機嗎？或者它是不是太晚，已經有太多的公司競爭？所以我努力去認真考察這五個因素在公司中的影響。我考察了100家創意實驗室下的公司，還有100家非創意實驗室下的公司，試圖提出一些科學的東西。

　　So first，on these Idealab companies，the top five companies —— Citysearch，CarsDirect，GoTo，NetZero，Tickets。com —— those all became billion—dollar successes。 And the five companies on the bottom —— Z。com，Insider Pages，MyLife，Desktop Factory，Peoplelink —— we all had high hopes for，but didn't succeed。So I tried to rank across all of those attributes how I felt those companies scored on each of those dimensions。 And then for non—Idealab companies，I looked at wild successes，like Airbnb and Uber and Youtube and LinkedIn。

　　首先，在這些創意實驗公司里，排在前面的五家公司Citysearch，CarsDirct，GoTo，NetZero，Tickets。com最后都成為了十億美元以上的成功公司而下面的五家公司Z。com，Insider Pages，MyLife，Desktop Factory，Peoplelink我們曾寄以重望，但沒有成功。所以我試圖就這些公司在每個因素中的得分，給它們排序。然后對于非創意實驗公司，我關注極度的成功者，像Airbnb，Uber，YouTube，Linkedln

　　And some failures：Webvan，Kozmo，Pets。com Flooz and Friendster。 The bottom companies had intense funding，they even had business models in some cases，but they didn't succeed。 I tried to look at what factors actually accounted the most for success and failure across all of these companies，and the results really surprised me。The number one thing was timing。

　　還有一些失敗的案例，Webvan，Kozmo，Pets。com Flooz和Friendster墊底的公司都有雄厚的資金一些案例甚至有商業模式在里面但是，他們并沒有成功。我嘗試考察在這些成功和失敗的案例中到底什么因素真的最重要結果讓我大吃一驚最重要的是時機，Timing accounted for 42 percent of the difference between success and failure。 Team and execution came in second，and the idea，the differentiability of the idea，the uniqueness of the idea，that actually came in third。Now，this isn't absolutely definitive，it's not to say that the idea isn't important，but it very much surprised me that the idea wasn't the most important thing。 Sometimes it mattered more when it was actually timed。The last two，business model and funding，made sense to me actually。

　　在解釋成功和失敗的差異中時機占42%團隊和執行力排在次位然后是創意創意的差異，或者說創意的獨特性實際上排在第三位它不是決定性的不是說創意不重要但創意不是最重要的，這還是讓我驚訝有時候更重要的是它是否恰對時機最末尾的兩項，商業模式和資金，實際上對我意義深遠

　　I think business model makes sense to be that low because you can start out without a business model and add one later if your customers are demanding what you're creating。 And funding，I think as well，if you're underfunded at first but you're gaining traction，especially in today's age，it's very，very easy to get intense funding。

　　我認為商業模式之所以不那么重要是因為沒有商業模式，你也可以創業要是你的客戶正需要你的創新時，更是如此至于資金，我認為也一樣如果你一開始資金不足然而卻可以不斷發展實際上今天的時代要想得到大量的資金真的非常非常的容易那現在讓我針對每個方面舉一些具體的事例

　　So now let me give you some specific examples about each of these。 So take a wild success like Airbnb that everybody knows about。 Well，that company was famously passed on by many smart investors because people thought，"No one's going to rent out a space in their home to a stranger。" Of course，people proved that wrong。 But one of the reasons it succeeded，aside fr—om a good business model，a good idea，great execution，is the timing。That company came out right during the height of the recession when people really needed extra money，and that maybe helped people overcome their objection to renting out their own home to a stranger。Same thing with Uber。

　　就以家耳熟能詳的Airbnb為例吧這家公司一開始曾被很多投資者pass掉了因為大家覺得“沒人會騰出家里的一塊地方出租給陌生人”當然，后來證明大家是錯的但是它成功的一個原因除了好的商業模式，好創意，強大的執行力之外就是時機就在經濟危機的最高潮時，該公司出現了。這時人們真的很需要掙點外快這或許幫助人們克服了要把自己的房間出租給一個陌生人的障礙對于Uber，情況相同

　　Uber came out，incredible company，incredible business model，great execution，too。 But the timing was so perfect for their need to get drivers into the system。 Drivers were looking for extra money；it was very，very important。Some of our early successes，Citysearch，came out when people needed web pages。 GoTo。com，which we announced actually at TED in 1998，was when companies were looking for cost—effective ways to get traffic。

　　Uber的誕生難以置信的公司，難以置信的商業模式也有強大的執行力但當它們需要拉司機進入到這個體系時時機恰好是那么完美司機們正需要掙外快，這點至關重要我們早期的一些成功范例，像Citysearch城市搜索，就在大家需要網頁的時候誕生了GoTo。com，這個我們早在1998年就在Ted上說過是在公司尋找劃算的獲得流量的方法時誕生的

　　We thought the idea was so great，but actually，the timing was probably maybe more important。 And then some of our failures。 We started a company called Z。com，it was an online entertainment company。 We were so excited about it —— we raised enough money，we had a great business model，we even signed incredibly great Hollywood talent to join the company。 But broadband penetration was too low in 1999—20xx。 It was too hard to watch video content online，you had to put codecs in your browser and do all this stuff，and the company eventually went out of business in 20xx。

　　我們曾經認為創意是那么重要然而實際上，時機或許更重要些然后是一些失敗的例子我們曾創立過一個叫Z。com的線上娛樂公司我們對此滿懷期待我們籌集了大量的資金，我們有一個很棒的商業模式甚至我們還將偉大的好萊塢天才們簽進公司但1999到20xx年的寬帶普及程度實在太低要想在網上看視頻太困難了你不得不向瀏覽器加入多媒體數字信號編解碼器，要加入所有編解碼器，最后這家公司最終在20xx年退出了市場

　　Just two years later，when the codec problem was solved by Adobe Flash and when broadband penetration crossed 50 percent in America，YouTube was perfectly timed。 Great idea，but unbelievable timing。 In fact，YouTube didn't even have a business model when it first started。 It wasn't even certain that that would work out。 But that was beautifully，beautifully timed。

　　僅僅在兩年之后，當Adobe flash解決了編解碼問題并且全美的寬帶普及度達到50%后YouTube正中時機好的創意，不可思議的時機事實上，YouTube一開始都沒有一個商業模式也不確定它是否會成功但它是如此漂亮地正中時機所以總結來說，我要說的就是執行力真的很重要創意很重要

　　So what I would say，in summary，is execution definitely matters a lot。 The idea matters a lot。 But timing might matter even more。 And the best way to really assess timing is to really look at whether consumers are really ready for what you have to offer them。 And to be really，really honest about it，not be in denial about any results that you see，because if you have something you love，you want to push it forward，but you have to be very，very honest about that factor on timing。

　　是，時機更重要而真正要去評估時機的最佳方法就是真的去考察消費者是否真的做好準備為你所提供的服務做好準備對此，一定要實事求是不要否認你所看到的任何結果因為如果你有喜愛的東西，你會想推動它但你不得不對時機這個因素非常非常的誠實

　　As I said earlier，I think startups can change the world and make the world a better place。 I hope some of these insights can maybe help you have a slightly higher success ratio，and thus make something great come to the world that wouldn't have happened otherwise。Thank you very much，you've been a great audience。

　　正如我之前所說，我認為創業公司可以改變世界，讓世界更加美好我希望這些見解可以幫助你們提高一點點成功的幾率這樣就可以給世界帶來一點本不會發生的好的改變十分感謝，你已經是一名偉大的聽眾。

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